Syrian Civil War Situation Report #2

Military Highlights:

• The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) appears to have already collapsed; SAA units have fled repeatedly from advancing opposition forces across the country.

• Various opposition groups have similarly taken control of large swaths of central and southern Syria and begun advancing into the southern and eastern outskirts of Damascus.

• On December 8th, the Syrian Director of the Middle East Institute shared a video of opposition fighters from Daraa escorting Syria’s Prime Minister out of his office and to the Four Seasons Hotel. This move is intended to symbolize the transfer of power and removal of the Assad regime.

• The UN Secretary-General on December 8th stated the following: “After 14 years of brutal war and the fall of the dictatorial regime, today the people of Syria can seize an historic opportunity to build a stable and peaceful future.”

• Iran appears unwilling to intervene militarily to support the Assad regime:

o Iranian-backed forces have avoided engaging opposition forces almost entirely.

o Iran has launched an emergency evacuation of its diplomatic staff and military officers from Damascus.

o The Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has called for political dialogue with the opposition.

• The Syrian President Bashar al Assad has been entirely absent through the crisis and has refrained from making any public address. Some unverified reports have suggested that Assad has fled, possibly to Iran.

Displacement and Humanitarian Assistance Highlights:

• As of December 5th, an estimated 178,000 people have been displaced due to the recent escalations in northern Syria, including 128,000 newly displaced and 39,000 displaced at least twice.

• The displacement wave is beyond the capacity to accommodate, forcing people to sleep on the streets and in their cars.

• The White Helmets reported that on December 6th, the humanitarian needs in the country are rapidly growing.

• On December 1st, the White Helmets began the Hope for Returnees Campaign:

o The goal of this campaign is to facilitate the safe return of displaced people to their homes in areas that have been affected by conflict or where residents have been forcibly displaced.

o The campaign started in the western countryside of Aleppo and the eastern countryside of Idlib. The campaign will follow a geographically organized approach.

o The campaign will focus on four main areas:

 Clearing roads blocked by bombing to allow the safe movement of civilians and humanitarian workers, particularly between homes, vital facilities, schools, and hospitals.

 Removing war debris to enable residents to rehabilitate their homes and utilize their agricultural land.

 Recovering the bodies of the deceased, documenting them, and burying them according to safety standards and identification protocols.

 Providing emergency medical and essential health services.

o No specific timeframe has been set for the campaign, given the rapidly evolving situation, which could lead to significant changes in the response efforts.

• On December 7th, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) addressed a rumor that the UN and its partners will evacuate Syria. This rumor is false!

• Healthcare and Public Health Update:

o Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS) reported on December 6th that in Idlib, two hospitals have suspended services and six are partially operational. This leaves over 15,000 people without basic healthcare.

o On December 7th, SAMS announced that its Oncology Department at the Idlib Central Hospital has reopened.

o Healthcare in Aleppo remains in jeopardy. SAMS reported that there is an acute shortage of healthcare services as of December 7th. SAMS has dispatched medical teams to address urgent needs.

o SAMS on December 8th, began to scale up its efforts in northwest Syria.

• The Syrian Red Crescent Society (SRCS) on December 8th provided spare parts for engine repairs and equipment to monitor electrical voltage at the Suleiman Al-Halabi station. This was done to ensure the water supply to Aleppo.

Violations of International Humanitarian Law Highlights:

• The International Commission on Missing Persons (ICMP) estimates that 150,000 people are missing in Syria because of fighting and human rights violations:

o The ICMP has been working with Syrian families of the missing and Syrian Civil society organizations. They have collected data from more than 76,200 relatives from Syria who have reported more than 28,200 missing persons.

o ICMP has also received reports of the locations of 66 mass graves and two detention sites.

o The ICMP has stated that it is crucial that records kept at Assad’s prisons and places of mass detention be preserved and open for inspection to hold the guilty parties responsible.

• The White Helmets reported on December 5th that over the last few days they have received reports of unidentified bodies in various locations across the city of Aleppo, as well as the countryside of Idlib, and Hama:

o Rapid response teams were formed to document these bodies, preserve their belongings, and then transport and bury them in designated areas in a dignified manner that respects societal and religious customs.

• The Syrian Network continues to document war crimes and human rights violations throughout the country. Some of these recent reports include:

o SAA and Russian warplanes on December 6th bombed the Shezar town which killed one woman.

o The SAA launched a rocket at Janoub al-Mal'ab in Hama city on December 6th. This attacked killed a father and his two children. Six other people were injured.

o On December 7th, an SAA artillery detachment stationed in the Salhab town bombed the al-Asharna village. One woman was killed.

o Syrian government’s National Defense Militias on December 7th opened fire on demonstrators trying to stop them from looting public property in Deir Ezzour. One woman was killed in this attack.

Sources:

• WoS Flash update #2 - Recent developments in Northern Syria

• Institute for the Study of War Blue Sky

• UN Special Envoy for Syria Twitter Page

• UN Refugee Agency, Syria Twitter Page

• Syria Civil Defence Twitter Page

• Syrian Emergency Task Force Twitter Page

• Syrian American Medical Society Twitter Page

• Middle East Institute Syrian Director Twitter Page

• International Commission on Missing Persons Twitter Page

Resources

Statement by the United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Mr. Geir O. Pedersen (New)