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  • Writer's pictureEmergency Manager's Weekly Report

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Situation Report #96

Military and Diplomatic Highlights: 

  • The Ukrainian military is reporting the following Russian losses:

o   343,890 Soldiers (Wounded or Killed)

o   5,706 Tanks

o   10,654 Armored vehicles

o   8,099 Artillery

o   6,226 Drones

o   324 Aircraft

o   324 Helicopters

o   1,608 Cruise missiles

  • Russian Drone and Missile Attacks:

o   18 drones and eight ballistic missiles were launched on December 11.  All were shot down.

o   On December 13th, 10 ballistic missiles were launched, and all were shot down. 

o   42 drones were launched on December 14th, and 41 were shot down. 

  • International Assistance:

o   Lithuania has delivered millions of ammunition rounds and winter equipment.

o   Germany has provided additional military equipment, it includes:

ü  One Patriot air defense system

ü  9 BV 206 tracked all-terrain vehicles.

ü  Three mine clearing systems

ü  14 Drone detection systems

ü  Eight Zetros trucks 

ü  Four semi-trailers

ü  Eight Zetros tankers

ü  Four vehicles (trucks, minibuses, all-terrain vehicles)

ü  7,390 rounds 155mm ammunition

ü  47,040 rounds 40mm ammunition

o   Estonia will be providing a military package worth 80 million Euros.  This package will also include Javelin anti-tank missiles.

o   Norway is providing a National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System.

o   The United Kingdom (UK) and Norway are coordinating a new Maritime Capability Coalition which will provide a blueprint for the development of a Ukrainian Navy.  As part of this agreement the UK is providing the following:

ü  Two Sandown Class Mine Counter-Measure Vessels

ü  20 Viking Amphibious vehicles

ü  23 Raiding craft

o   The UK along with nine other partner nations have trained 32,000 Ukrainian soldiers. 

o   On December 12th, the United States announced a new military package worth $200 million.  This package includes:

ü  AIM-9M missiles for air defense

ü  Air defense system components

ü  Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems

ü  155mm and 105mm artillery rounds

ü  High-speed Anti-radiation missiles

ü  Tube-Launched, Optically Tracked, Wire-Guided missiles.

ü  Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems

ü  More than 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition

ü  Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing.

ü  Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure.

ü  Spare parts, generators, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.

  • The UK Ministry of Defense provided the following assessments:

o   Fighting around the Town of Marinka:

ü  Heavy fighting continues for control of the destroyed town of Marinka and its surrounding areas in south-eastern Ukraine. Russia has likely further reduced the small pockets of Ukrainian controlled territory remaining within the town boundary.

ü  One of Russia’s operational objectives in the area is likely to secure the 00510 and N15 highways to eventually advance further west towards the town of Kurakhove.

ü  Despite its incremental advances, a major, operationally significant Russian breakthrough in this sector remains highly unlikely.

o   Russia’s 104th Guards Airborne Division operations:

ü  In early December 2023, the newly formed 104th Guards Airborne Division (104 GAD) of the VDV (Russia’s airborne forces) highly likely suffered exceptionally heavy losses and failed to achieve its objectives during its combat debut in Kherson Oblast.

ü  The operation took place after the division joined Russia’s Dnipro Group of Forces and its attempt to dislodge the Ukrainian bridgehead near the village of Krynky on the east bank of the Dnipro.  104 GAD was reportedly poorly supported by airpower and artillery, while many of the troops were highly likely inexperienced.

ü  Following the incident, Russian ‘milbloggers’ called on the Dnipro Group of Forces Commander, Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, to resign.  This is a blow to Teplinsky’s reputation as one of the more capable Russian field commanders of the war: in his routine role he is also commanding general of the VDV.

o   Russian Night-Time Fighting:

ü  Russian forces highly likely continue to struggle when fighting at night. Numerous reports from combatants have highlighted this trend since the start of the war in late November 2023, a social media user claiming to be a Russian soldier serving in Kherson highlighted the shortage of night vision goggles (NVGs) and low-light cameras for uncrewed aerial vehicles.

ü  NVGs have frequently featured high in the lists of equipment Russian units request from their families and supporters. Ukrainian forces have often been equipped with night vision devices from international partners.

ü  There is also likely a cultural element to Russia’s problem: Russian military training has rarely emphasized night exercises instead typically building towards set-piece, daylight events to impress visiting senior officers. In contrast, the Russian soldier claimed Ukrainian forces “move mostly at night."

  • The International Atomic Energy Agency reported that the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant has been re-connected to its only remaining back-up power line after it was suddenly lost two weeks ago, but the site’s overall supply of off-site electricity remains fragile and vulnerable to further disruptions.

  • On December 14th, the European Council decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine.  This is another step in Ukraine’s petition to join the European Union. 

 

War and Atrocity Crimes Investigations Highlights: 

  • The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reported that between December 8-15, 1,622 new war crimes were registered. 

  • On December 14th, Russian troops shelled the city of Toretsk which damaged a State Emergency Services station. 

  • The International Commission on Missing Persons (ICMP) reported the following activities:

o   On December 15th, in cooperation with the Prosecutors’ Training Center of Ukraine, they delivered training to 25 prosecutors, police investigators and forensic experts in Kyiv.

o   The ICMP completed the second phase of a campaign that enables Ukrainian refugees in Europe to provide genetic reference samples.  These samples can be used to locate relatives missing in Ukraine.

o   On December 12th, materials and equipment were donated to Ukraine.  This donation will facilitate the application of state-of-the-art DNA human identification techniques.

 

Humanitarian Impact and Response and Recovery Highlights:

  • There are now 5.9 refugees registered throughout Europe as of December 12th.

  • Russian airstrikes on December 13th targeted and damaged civilian infrastructure which will further deteriorate the humanitarian situation. 

  • Russian launched a cyberattack on December 12th against Kyivstar.  This company is one of the country’s largest mobile operators:

o   The attacks affect millions of people who rely on this company to access vital public services (banking system, postal services, and air raid notification systems).

  • Humanitarian organizations have stepped up response activities to address specific humanitarian needs caused or exacerbated by the cold season and have reached over 800,000 people already, in addition to the regular aid to help millions suffering the consequences of the war.

  • On December 15th, a UN inter-agency convoy delivered three tons of humanitarian aid for 3,000 residents of the front-line Beryslav community in the Kherson Region.

  • Food Security Update:

o   By the end of November, the World Food Programme reported that about 75.7 million tons of grain and oil crops were harvested in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) updated the estimate of the potential harvest for 2023, increasing it up to 81.6 tons. MT.  In 2022, according to UGA, the harvest reached 73.8 tons of grain and oil crops. The steady increase in the forecast is due to favorable weather conditions and better crop yields.

o   Through its 2023 Response Program for Ukraine, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) required a total of $205 million to assist rural households and small-scale farmers residing in the front-line oblasts by distributing agricultural production inputs to ensure that these communities can rely on their own production. As of November 30th, FAO has mobilized $45.3 million, leaving a gap of $159.7 million.

 

Russian Dis-information Campaign Highlights:

  • In a four-hour press conference on December 14th, President Putin pushed out numerous false stories.  PolyGraph Info has provided a fact check of these false stories. 

  • Russia is again pushing out disinformation on biological weapons labs.  However, now they are claiming that they are also located in Finland and Kazakhstan.

  • Russia is mixing Islamophobia with their disinformation campaign by claiming that a video shows Ukrainian soldiers putting lard on a Koran and then burning it. 

  • Russia is falsely claiming that Ukraine is using drugs supplies by Western powers to zombify their soldiers.

 

Cultural Heritage Protection Highlights:

The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) as of December 13th has verified damage to 333 cultural heritage sites.  These include:

  • 125 Religious sites

  • 146 Buildings of historical and/or artistic interest

  • 29 Museums

  • 19 Monuments

  • 13 Libraries

  • 1 Archive

 

Sources:  

  • ReliefWeb, Ukraine Humanitarian Crisis Website

  • Ukraine Humanitarian Response 2023 Winter Attacks: Humanitarian Impact of Intensified Strikes and Hostilities – Flash Update #1 (13 Dec 2023)

  • Ukraine: FAO Humanitarian response update, 12 December 2023The Local Economist - Ukraine Country Office : Monthly Economic Bulletin Research, Assessment, and Monitoring November, 2023

  • Damaged cultural sites in Ukraine verified by UNESCO

·         Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Twitter Page

·         Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine Twitter Page

·         Ukrainian State Emergency Services Twitter Page 

·         United Kingdom Ministry of Defense Twitter Page

·         U.S. Department of Defense Twitter Page 

 

 

Resources

 

UN Refugee Agency, Ukrainian Refugee Operational Data Portal

 

Centre for Humanitarian Data, Ukraine Data Explorer

 

Humanitarian Logistics Association, Ukraine Crisis Information Website

 

ACAPS Ukraine Analysis Hub

 

UKRAINE- HEALTH CLUSTER ACTIVITIES Dashboard

 

U.S. Department of State, Disinformation Website

 

U.S. Department of Defense, Support for Ukraine

 

Alliance For Securing Democracy War in Ukraine Dis-Information Dashboard

 

National Democratic Institute Disinformation Coordination Hub

 

International Fact-Checking Network, Ukraine Facts

 

Monetary Donations


·         Ukrainian Government United 24 

·         Iowa Sister States 

·         World Central Kitchen 



Russian Invasion of Ukraine Situation Report #96
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