Russian Invasion of Ukraine Situation Report #90
Military and Diplomatic Highlights:
The Ukrainian military is reporting the following Russian losses:
o 286,890 Soldiers (Wounded or Killed) o 4,940 Tanks o 9,337 Armored vehicles o 6,833 Artillery o 317 Aircraft o 316 Helicopters o 5,265 Drones o 1,531 Cruise missiles o 20 Ships
International Military Assistance:
o The Netherlands is supplying another batch of Patriot missiles. o Ukraine and Bulgaria have signed a Memorandum of Understanding which widens the area of bilateral cooperation in cyber defense, strategic communications, and military support. o The United States is providing an additional $200 million worth of ammunition for air defense, artillery and missile ammunition, aviation weapons and anti-tank weapons. o The United Kingdom (UK) is providing 115 million Euros for demining and equipment maintenance. o Denmark will be transferring F-16s at the beginning of 2024. o Finland is providing an aid package that is worth 95 million Euros. o Canada will provide $25 million for winter preparation. o Belgium will provide F-16s in 2025 and F-16 pilots training. o Norway is providing $18.5 million in demining assistance. o Additional air defense systems and 1.5 million Euros for demining will be provided by Spain. o Germany is providing missiles for air defense and additional tanks. o Bulgaria will provide English courses for Ukrainian F-16 pilots. o Lithuania will be providing two National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, ammunition, and winter supplies. o The UK continues to train Ukrainian soldiers. In June, they began training field medics in collaboration with Iceland and the Netherlands. They have trained 150 field medics so far.
The UK Ministry of Defense has provided the following information:
o Russian Air Force Strikes: ü Russian Air Force Long Range Aviation (LRA) aircraft have not conducted a strike against Ukraine since September 21, a period of 21 days. While such breaks have not been unusual, the last similar break in strikes occurred between March 9 and April 28, a period of 51 days. ü In that instance it was likely that LRA had almost depleted its stocks of capable AS-23 missile munitions following its winter campaign against Ukrainian critical national infrastructure. This time, it is likely that Russian LRA are preserving existing stocks of AS-23 missiles as well as using this pause to increase useable stocks in anticipation of further heavy strikes against Ukraine over the winter. ü Recently, Russia has focused its airstrikes against grain-related facilities across the south of Ukraine, using SHAHED one-way-attack uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA UAVs). This included strikes against Ukrainian Danube River ports, which likely required a high level of accuracy due to the target’s proximity to the Romanian border. It is likely that Russia used SHAHED OWA UAVs on these targets because of their better accuracy over other types of air-launched missiles. o Post-Traumatic Stress for Russian soldiers: ü The Russian military is facing a mental health crisis. In December 2022, Russian psychologists identified approximately 100,000 military personnel suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This number is almost certainly now higher as the Russian military fails to provide sufficient rotation and recuperation from the battlefield. ü This was a problem highlighted by multiple commanders, including the former 58th Combined Arms Army’s General-Major Ivan Popov who was relieved of command in July 2023. There are additional indications that doctors in Russia are sending military personnel who are unfit to fight to the front. Appeal claims against Russian military medical commissions are higher in 2023 than they were in 2022, with many cases denied or claims abandoned. ü With a lack of care for its soldiers’ mental health and fitness to fight, Russia's combat fighting effectiveness continues to operate at sub-optimal levels. o Defense of Russian Black Sea Fleet: ü Since suffering a series of strikes in August and September, the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) has highly likely doubled down on its defensive and reactive posture. It has relocated many of its prestige assets, including cruise missile capable ships and submarines from Sevastopol to operating and basing areas further east, such as Novorossiysk. ü Since July 2022, Ukraine has gained the initiative in the northwest Black Sea, forcing the powerful BSF to defend itself from uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), uncrewed air vehicles (UAVs) and missile attacks as well as special operations. With notable and embarrassing exceptions, however, the BSF has mostly continued to train, maintain, and defend itself whilst launching cruise missiles into Ukraine. It can almost certainly continue to do so from the eastern Black Sea. ü Despite the BSF’s largely intact capabilities, there is only a realistic possibility of it using its conventional superiority in firepower to seize the initiative in the Western Black Sea. The risk of further military losses and the dire political consequences of Russian naval forces overtly attacking merchant shipping would highly likely outweigh any gain from attempting to enforce a blockade of Ukrainian-bound trade.
The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is transitioning a second reactor (unit 5) to hot shutdown to provide warm water and district heating. Unit 4 is already in hot shutdown; ZNPP’s four other reactors remain in cold shutdown.
War and Atrocity Crimes Investigations Highlights:
The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has recorded 27,768 civilian casualties (9,806 killed and 17,962 injured) in the country.
The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine is reporting that between October 6-13 there have been 656 new war crimes reported.
On October 5th, Russian missiles struck the Hroza in the Kharkiv region which killed 59 people which included two humanitarians from Save the Children. This attack killed roughly 20% of the villages’ population.
The Russian Federation in response to the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) ongoing investigations into atrocity crimes have issued arrest warrants for the ICC President, the First Vice President, and the Trial Judge of the Court.
On October 13th, Russian forces shelled Nikopol and then also targeted Ukrainian State Emergency Services units with a kamikaze drone. Two first responders were injured.
Humanitarian Impact and Response and Recovery Highlights: · The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) as of October 11th is reporting the following: o There are 17.6 million people in need and 11.1 million people have been targeted to receive assistance. o There are now five million Internally Displaced Persons and 5.8 million refugees in Europe. o $3.9 Billion is required to support humanitarian assistance and $2 Billion has been received. · Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to cause daily destruction of civilian infrastructure and continues to generate humanitarian needs. · Russian attacks on ports and grain facilities have continued over the past months. · The humanitarian situation is expected to continue to deteriorate over the coming months, as the onset of the winter brings additional challenges and risks to people facing harsh conditions. · Humanitarian assistance has continued to reach more people every week, despite challenges, including attacks directly impacting aid. · There have been over 100 security incidents against humanitarians that have continued to hamper their operations. In 2023, at least six humanitarians were killed and 16 injured in the line of duty compared to four killed in 2022. · Attacks impacting distribution points have steadily increased throughout the year, forcing temporary suspension of aid on several occasions. · On October 10th, humanitarians delivered vital medicines, house repair materials and winter supplies to people in Toretsk (Donetsk Region). This was the 30th inter-agency convoy to reach front-line areas of this region this year. Russian Dis-information Campaign Highlights:
A Russian State Television (RT) host claimed that the Ukraine’s 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade uses a Nazi SS emblem. Here is the fact check.
The EU East Stratcom Task Force Disinformation Review provided a weekly overview of Russian dis-information.
Cultural Heritage Protection Highlights:
The Ukrainian Ministry of Culture and Information Policy provided the following updates:
o As of October 13th, Russian forces have damaged 835 monuments of cultural heritage. o A total of 1,702 objects of cultural infrastructure have been damaged as of October 9th. o The Ministry is continuing to digitalize more than 1,110 works of art at the Lviv Art Gallery. Sources:
Ukraine Humanitarian Response 2023: Situation Report, 11 October 2023
· Ukraine: Civilian casualties as of 8 October 2023 · OCHA Ukraine Twitter Page · WHO Ukraine Twitter Page · International Criminal Court Twitter Page · Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Twitter Page · Ukrainian State Emergency Services Twitter Page · Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine Twitter Page · Ukrainian Ministry of Culture and Information Policy Twitter Page · United Kingdom Ministry of Defense Twitter Page · EU East Stratcom Task Force Disinformation Review Twitter Page · PolyGraph Info Twitter Page Resources UN Refugee Agency, Ukrainian Refugee Operational Data Portal http://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine Centre for Humanitarian Data, Ukraine Data Explorer https://data. humdata.org/visualization/ukraine-humanitarian-operations/ Humanitarian Logistics Association, Ukraine Crisis Information Website https://www.humanitarianlogistics.org/donate ACAPS Ukraine Analysis Hub https://ukraine-analysis-hub.acaps.org/ UKRAINE- HEALTH CLUSTER ACTIVITIES Dashboard https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/ukraine/ukraine-health-cluster-activities U.S. Department of State, Disinformation Website https://www.state.gov/disarming-disinformation/ U.S. Department of Defense, Support for Ukraine https://www.defense.gov/Spotlights/Support-for-Ukraine/ Alliance For Securing Democracy War in Ukraine Dis-Information Dashboard https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/war-in-ukraine/ National Democratic Institute Disinformation Coordination Hub https://t.co/OctUrivBQC International Fact-Checking Network, Ukraine Facts https://ukrainefacts.org/ Monetary Donations
Ukrainian Red Cross: Cryptocurrency and PayPal
United Nations Crisis Relief
UN Refugee Agency Donations
UN Migration Agency Donations
UNESCO Paypal Account
International Council of Museums
Ukrainian Emergency Art Fund
WHO Foundation, Ukraine
Center for International Disaster Information
Center for Disaster Philanthropy, Ukraine
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
· Ukrainian Government United 24
U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants