Russian Invasion of Ukraine Situation Report #89
Military and Diplomatic Highlights:
The Ukrainian military is reporting the following Russian losses:
o 278,130 Soldiers (Killed or Wounded) o 4,691 Tanks o 8,984 Armored vehicles o 6,447 Artillery o 315 Aircraft o 316 Helicopters o 5,006 Drones o 1,529 Cruise missiles o 1 Submarine
The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense is reporting the following:
o Wagner Group’s Chief of Staff Andrei Troshev ü On September 29th, Russian authorities published footage of President Putin meeting former Wagner Group Chief of Staff Andrei Troshev, tasking him with overseeing and establishing new ‘volunteer fighting units’. Deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov was also at the meeting. ü Around the time of the June 2023 insurrection, Troshev took up a role in the official security forces: Troshev was probably involved in encouraging other Wagner personnel to sign contracts, contributing to the insurrection. Many Wagner veterans likely consider him a traitor. ü Yevkurov has recently been pictured touring African states. Presidential endorsement of Troshev and Yevkurov indicates Russia’s continuing utilization of volunteer units and private military companies and planning for the future of Wagner. ü It is prepared to draw on the experience of veterans who can demonstrate their loyalty to the state and continued involvement in the Global South, but probably with greater oversight from the Kremlin. o Deployment of former Wagner Group personnel to Ukraine: ü In recent weeks, up to hundreds of fighters formerly associated with the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) have likely started to redeploy to Ukraine as individuals and small groups, fighting for a variety of pro-Russian units. ü Wagner withdrew from combat operations in Ukraine by early June 2023, prior to the abortive mutiny of June 24th, and the subsequent death of Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin and other senior leaders in a plane crash on August 23rd. ü The exact status of the redeploying personnel is unclear, but it is likely individuals have transferred to parts of the official Russian Ministry of Defense forces and other PMCs. ü Several reports suggest a concentration of Wagner veterans around Bakhmut: their experience is likely to be particularly in demand in this sector. Many will be familiar with current front line and local Ukrainian tactics, having fought over the same terrain last winter. o Losses of Russian Fixed-Wing Aircraft: ü The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have lost approximately 90 fixed-wing aircraft in combat since February 2022. It has also been flying some of its combat aircraft types far more intensively than in peace time. ü All aircraft have a projected lifespan, in flying hours. It is highly likely that with this extra wartime use, Russia is eating into many of its airframes’ lifespans far more quickly than the VKS planned for. ü The need for extra maintenance is complicated by a shortage of spare parts because of increasing demand and international sanctions. ü The VKS maintains the ability to surge sortie rates over occupied Ukraine. However, as the war continues much longer than the Russian Ministry of Defense originally planned for, wear and tear of airframes is likely to have reduced the viability of the VKS’s long-term tactical air power. War and Atrocity Crimes Investigations Highlights:
Overall, the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reports that there have been more than 100,000 incidents of war crimes documented. They have also documented more than 19,000 cases of the unlawful deportation of children.
Between September 22 to 29, the Prosecutor General's Office registered 714 new war crimes.
Humanitarian Impact and Response and Recovery Highlights: · On September 27th, the UN Migration Agency and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs provided a 160-kW generator to Kryzhopil water utility in the Vinnytsia region. This will ensure uninterrupted public utility services for 20,000 residents and nearly 1,900 displaced people in the city. · The World Health Organization (WHO) has recorded 1,234 attacks on healthcare since February 2022. · WHO has been installing temporary health clinics to provide access to services in areas where facilities were destroyed. Installation has started as of September 26th in Sumy and Kharkiv. · World Central Kitchen is continuing to provide feeding assistance. This includes providing monthly food kits to people in the city of Hulyaipole, which is just five kilometers from the frontline. · The Ukraine Humanitarian Fund is funding AVSI Foundation’s efforts in repairing around 20 schools that were damaged by Russian forces. They are also equipping shelters in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Russian Dis-information Campaign Highlights:
Pro-Russian Twitter users are spreading misinformation about Ukraine’s misuse of western aid.
Russia continues to spread disinformation that they want peace while still attacking Ukraine.
Cultural Heritage Protection Highlights:
The EU East Stratcom Task Force Disinformation Review has documented Russian disinformation that Russian forces are protecting cultural heritage in Ukraine. Here is the fact check.
The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine has documented over 600 cultural heritage sites that have been destroyed or damaged by Russian forces.
The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) as of September 27th, has verified damage to 291 cultural heritage sites. This includes:
o 122 Religious sites o 27 Museums o 109 Buildings of historical and/or artistic interest o 19 Monuments o 13 Libraries o 1 Archive Sources:
Damaged cultural sites in Ukraine verified by UNESCO
Ukrainian Red Cross Twitter Page
· United Kingdom Ministry of Defense Twitter Page · EU East Stratcom Task Force Disinformation Review Twitter Page · PolyGraph Info Twitter Page · World Central Kitchen Twitter Page Resources UN Refugee Agency, Ukrainian Refugee Operational Data Portal http://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine Centre for Humanitarian Data, Ukraine Data Explorer https://data. humdata.org/visualization/ukraine-humanitarian-operations/ Humanitarian Logistics Association, Ukraine Crisis Information Website https://www.humanitarianlogistics.org/donate ACAPS Ukraine Analysis Hub https://ukraine-analysis-hub.acaps.org/ UKRAINE- HEALTH CLUSTER ACTIVITIES Dashboard https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/ukraine/ukraine-health-cluster-activities U.S. Department of State, Disinformation Website https://www.state.gov/disarming-disinformation/ U.S. Department of Defense, Support for Ukraine https://www.defense.gov/Spotlights/Support-for-Ukraine/ Alliance For Securing Democracy War in Ukraine Dis-Information Dashboard https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/war-in-ukraine/ National Democratic Institute Disinformation Coordination Hub https://t.co/OctUrivBQC International Fact-Checking Network, Ukraine Facts https://ukrainefacts.org/ Monetary Donations
Ukrainian Red Cross: Cryptocurrency and PayPal
United Nations Crisis Relief
UN Refugee Agency Donations
UN Migration Agency Donations
UNESCO Paypal Account
International Council of Museums
Ukrainian Emergency Art Fund
WHO Foundation, Ukraine
Center for International Disaster Information
Center for Disaster Philanthropy, Ukraine
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
· Ukrainian Government United 24
U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants