Russian Invasion of Ukraine Situation Report #72

Military and Diplomatic Highlights: · The Ukrainian military is reporting the following Russian losses: o 201,760 Soldiers (Wounded or Killed) o 3,777 Tanks o 7,377 Armored vehicles o 3,210 Artillery o 308 Aircraft o 294 Helicopters o 2,769 Drones · The United Kingdom’s (UK) Prime Minister announced that the United States has agreed to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets. · On May 18th, the Ukrainian military has shot down 29 Russian missiles and four drones. · The Ukrainian military on May 16th reported that they successfully shot down six hypersonic missiles. · On May 15th, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that they will shortly begin training Ukrainian tank crews and maintenance personnel on the M1 tanks: o 31 tanks are scheduled to be delivered in January 2024. · The UK Ministry of Defense is reporting the following: o Russian train derailment: ü On May 18th, a train derailed near Simferopol, blocking the only rail line into the port of Sevastopol, the base of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (BSF). The railway authorities said it was a result of “interference by outsiders.” ü Russia will move to repair the line quickly, but the incident will disrupt deliveries of supplies and potentially also weaponry to the BSF. ü Any sabotage in this sensitive area will further increase the Kremlin’s concerns about its ability to protect other key infrastructure in Crimea. The peninsula retains a vital psychological and logistical role in enabling Russia’s war in Ukraine. o Senior Official Resignations: ü The Russian government is likely effectively banning senior officials from resigning from their jobs while the ‘Special Military Operation’ continues. The measures likely extend to at least regional leaders, security officials and members of the powerful Presidential Administration. ü In private, many officials are likely highly skeptical about the war, as well as often experiencing work stress within the dysfunctional wartime apparatus. The ban is likely enforced with strong hints that individuals who will resign will face fabricated criminal charges. ü The Russian government is likely also attempting to prevent any impression of defeatism, and to bolster a sense of collective responsibility for the war. o Combat operations in Bakhmut: ü The Wagner Group forces continue to make gradual progress in clearing Ukrainian positions in the town center of Bakhmut. However, over the last four days, Ukrainian forces have made tactical progress stabilizing the flanks of Bakhmut to their advantage. ü As well as progress to the south of town, Ukrainian assaults have forced back the Russian frontline to the northwest of the town. This has likely enabled Ukrainian forces to re-establish more secure use of the key 0506 supply road. ü Ukrainian forces are also holding Russia’s western advances along the line of Donets-Donbas Canal, turning the waterway into an obstacle as part of a deep defensive zone around the town of Chasiv Yar. War and Atrocity Crimes Investigations Highlights: · As of May 14th, the UN Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights recorded 23,821 civilian casualties (8,836 killed and 14,985 injured) in the country. · The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reported that of May 19th there have been 1,828 new war crimes registered. Humanitarian Impact and Response and Recovery Highlights: · The UN reports that the humanitarian situation in the front-line Lymanska hromada of the eastern Donetska oblast remains difficult: o This area consists of 38 towns and villages. Its population pre-war was 43,000 people but has decreased to 13,000. o Nearly 85% of the buildings in the region were destroyed when Ukraine’s Government regained control of the area in October 2022. o Some villages have been entirely disconnected from electricity, water supply and telecommunications since April 2022. Restoration work is ongoing, but it is estimated that only 40% of residents have electricity, 10% have access to gas and 20% have access to piped water. o Access to health care in the region is also limited, with only one functional 40-bed hospital and a few primary health-care facilities. One pharmacy has recently reopened. · On May 19th, a UN convoy delivered aid to 2,700 people in the Tiahynka community (Kherson region). · Black Sea Grain Initiative Update (May 17th): o There have been 952 outbound voyages carrying 30 million tons of commodities. o A total of 41.8% of wheat has been shipped to lower income countries. Russian Dis-information Campaign Highlights: · The Russian Foreign Minister has stated that Germany’s assistance to Ukraine has been dictated by Nazi Genes. Details are available here. · The Russian government has been spreading additional disinformation. The latest involves Poland staging fake victories on Russia’s Victory Day. Cultural Heritage Protection Highlights: · The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) has launched a new grant program to train 65 Ukrainian photojournalists to report on cultural life in the context of the war and to document damages to over 50 cultural heritage sites. · As of May 17th, UNESCO has verified damage to 256 cultural heritage sites. These include: o 110 Religious sites o 22 Museums o 92 Buildings of historical and/or artistic interest o 19 Monuments o 12 Libraries o 1 Archive Sources: · Ukraine: Deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Donetska oblast - Flash Update #4: Lyman (16 May 2023) · Ukraine: Civilian casualties as of 24:00, 14 May 2023 · Ukraine Data Explorer · Damaged cultural sites in Ukraine verified by UNESCO · OCHA Ukraine Twitter Page · UNESCO Kyiv Twitter Page · Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Twitter Page · Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine Twitter Page · United Kingdom Ministry of Defense Twitter Page · U.S. Department of Defense Twitter Page · PolyGraph Info Twitter Page · EU East Stratcom Task Force Disinformation Review Twitter Page Resources Ukraine: UN relief chief calls for end to carnage (New) https://www.unocha.org/story/ukraine-un-relief-chief-calls-end-carnage UN Refugee Agency, Ukrainian Refugee Operational Data Portal http://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine Centre for Humanitarian Data, Ukraine Data Explorer https://data.humdata.org/visualization/ukraine-humanitarian-operations/ Humanitarian Logistics Association, Ukraine Crisis Information Website https://www.humanitarianlogistics.org/donate ACAPS Ukraine Analysis Hub https://ukraine-analysis-hub.acaps.org/ UKRAINE- HEALTH CLUSTER ACTIVITIES Dashboard https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/ukraine/ukraine-health-cluster-activities U.S. Department of State, Disinformation Website https://www.state.gov/disarming-disinformation/ U.S. Department of Defense, Support for Ukraine https://www.defense.gov/Spotlights/Support-for-Ukraine/ Alliance For Securing Democracy War in Ukraine Dis-Information Dashboard https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/war-in-ukraine/ National Democratic Institute Disinformation Coordination Hub https://t.co/OctUrivBQC International Fact-Checking Network, #Ukraine Facts https://ukrainefacts.org/ Monetary Donations