Emergency Manager's Weekly Report
- May 13, 2023
- 6 min read

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Situation Report #71

Military and Diplomatic Highlights: · The Ukrainian military is reported the following Russian losses: o 198,260 Soldiers (Wounded or Killed) o 3,751 Tanks o 7,307 Armored vehicles o 3,095 Artillery o 308 Aircraft o 294 Helicopters o 2,665 Drones · On May 8th, 35 of 35 drones were shot down. These drones were targeting Kyiv. · The Ukrainian Air Force on May 6th successfully shot down a Russian hypersonic missile. This was made possible by a Patriot missile battery provided by the United States. · The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense is reporting the following: o Missile attack by Russian Black Sea Fleet: ü On the night of May 8-9, the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet vessels launched eight SS-N-30a SAGARIS land attack cruise missiles (LACMs) against Ukraine. This was only the second use of Russian Navy LACMs reported since March 9, 2023. ü Up to March 2023, the Russian Navy frequently launched SAGARIS. Russia likely suspended using these weapons because it wanted to rebuild its reserve stocks. ü In the short-term, Russia likely sees LACM as a key capability to strike deep into Ukraine to disrupt anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensives. However, more strategically, Russia also sees conventional SAGARIS and other LACMs as having an important role in any hypothetical conflict with NATO. ü How to use these scarce and expensive weapons is one of the numerous dilemmas’ Russian commanders face because the war in Ukraine has gone on much longer than they originally planned for. o Recruiting of Russian Prisoners: ü Since the start of 2023, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has ramped up a scheme to recruit Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine. It is likely that up to 10,000 convicts signed up in April 2023 alone. ü From summer 2022, prisoners were the key pool of recruits for the Wagner Group private military company’s operations in Ukraine. However, the group highly likely lost access to the Russian penal system in February 2023 when its public feud with the MoD was escalating. ü The MoD’s prisoner recruitment campaign is part of a broader, intense effort by the Russian military to bolster its numbers, while attempting to avoid implementing new mandatory mobilization, which would be very unpopular with the Russian public. o Russian Victory Day Parade: ü On May 9th, the make-up of Russia’s annual Victory Day Parade in Red Square highlighted the materiel and strategic communications challenges the military is facing 15 months into the war in Ukraine. ü Over 8,000 personnel reportedly took part in the parade, but the majority were auxiliary, paramilitary forces, and cadets from military training establishments. ü The only personnel from deployable formations of regular forces were contingents of Railway Troops and military police. ü A vintage T-34 from a ceremonial unit was the sole tank on parade. Despite heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia could have fielded more armored vehicles. The authorities likely refrained from doing so because they want to avoid domestic criticism about prioritizing parades over combat operations. · The U.S. Department of Defense announced a $1.2 billion package which is part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. This grant will bolster the country's air defenses and sustain its artillery needs by providing the following: o Additional 155 mm artillery rounds o Additional air defense systems and munitions equipment to integrate Western air-defense launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine's air-defense systems. o Ammunition to shoot down unmanned aerial systems. o Commercial satellite-imagery services · The International Atomic Energy Agency is reporting that the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant’s six reactors are in a shutdown state. The plant has enough essential staff for its current reduced level of operations, but the continued lack of maintenance personnel on-site could negatively impact nuclear safety and security. War and Atrocity Crimes Investigations Highlights: · As of May 7th, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights recorded 23,606 civilian casualties (8,791 killed and 14,815 injured) in the country. · The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reported that 1,525 new war crimes were registered between May 5-12. · The Prosecutors of the Kherson Regional Prosecutor's Office have charged a colonel of the Russian police and three of his accomplices with suspicion of organizing a torture chamber during the occupation of Kherson: o According to the investigation, over two hundred people were illegally confined and tortured in the seized premises of the temporary detention center from March to October 2022. The victims mainly were pro-Ukrainian activists, volunteers, and veterans. o The victims were beaten and tortured, deprived of food and water, and denied medical care. At least 17 men were subjected to torture of their genitals with electrocution. o In the Kherson region alone, 11 torture chambers and 13 places of detention have been discovered. · The Ukrainian government is working closely with Europol in investigating Russian crimes committed in the country. Europol has already analyzed more than 7,000 photo and video files and identified 150 individuals involved in the commission of crimes. · On May 9th, the AFP video coordinator Arman Soldin was killed in the country. He was the 12th journalist that has been killed since the start of the war. Humanitarian Impact and Response and Recovery Highlights: · On May 8th, the Ukrainian Red Cross warehouse in Odesa was destroyed by a Russian missile attack. This attack also killed a security guard. In Mkkolaiv, a Ukrainian Red Cross mobile hospital was also damage by this missile strike. · On May 9th, the World Health Organization delivered essential supplies and medicines near Bakhmut as a part of UN interagency convoy. These supplies included: o Interagency health kits o Non communicable disease kits · Food Security Update: o Black Sea Grain Initiative Update (May 11th): ü There have been 947 outbound voyages carrying 30 million tons of commodities. ü A total of 3.5 million quantities of wheat were shipped to low-income countries. ü The UN Food and Agricultural Organization is reporting that international prices of wheat and maize declined in April 2023 while rice prices increased. o The World Food Programme (WFP) is reporting the following: ü This change in season is welcomed by many Ukrainians, as the 2022/2023 winter season was a difficult one. The food and essential needs were significantly higher in cost for people, especially in frontline areas. ü To respond to this surge of need, WFP served over three million people every month throughout the winter months from December 2022 to March 2023. More favorable weather conditions have started easing the burden on each household to pay for essential heating, thus availing more resources to dedicate to food and other needs. ü In April, WFP scaled back its humanitarian assistance to serve 2.4 million people. Most of the WFP’s assistance continues to be received by women; in 2023 so far, 62% of the total number of people served are estimated to be female, and 38% male. ü For May, a similar scale-back is planned to reach 1.8 million people in need of humanitarian assistance under the current food and cash programs. Russian Dis-information Campaign Highlights: · In a May 10th interview, Dmitry Peskov (Russian government spokesperson) claimed Russia was unable to defeat Ukraine because of their humanitarian concerns for the preservation of Ukrainian cities and human lives. The fact check is available here. · President’s Putin’s May 9th speech contained numerous false statements. A summary of these false statements is available here. Cultural Heritage Protection Highlights: · The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) verified damage to 255 cultural heritage sites as of May 10th. The breakdown of these sites is: o 110 Religious sites o 22 Museums o 91 Buildings of historical and/or artistic interest o 19 Monuments o 12 Libraries o 1 Archive Sources: · FPMA Bulletin #4, 10 May 2023 · WFP Ukraine External Situation Report #39 (05 May 2023) · Ukraine: Civilian casualties as of 24:00, 7 May 2023 · Ukraine Data Explorer · Damaged cultural sites in Ukraine verified by UNESCO · OCHA Ukraine Twitter Page · UNESCO Kyiv Twitter Page · Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Twitter Page · Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine Twitter Page · Ukrainian Red Cross Twitter Page · IFRC Europe Twitter Page · United Kingdom Ministry of Defense Twitter Page · U.S. Department of Defense Twitter Page · PolyGraph Info Twitter Page · EU East Stratcom Task Force Disinformation Review Twitter Page Resources UN Refugee Agency, Ukrainian Refugee Operational Data Portal http://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine Centre for Humanitarian Data, Ukraine Data Explorer https://data.humdata.org/visualization/ukraine-humanitarian-operations/ Humanitarian Logistics Association, Ukraine Crisis Information Website https://www.humanitarianlogistics.org/donate ACAPS Ukraine Analysis Hub https://ukraine-analysis-hub.acaps.org/ UKRAINE- HEALTH CLUSTER ACTIVITIES Dashboard https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/ukraine/ukraine-health-cluster-activities U.S. Department of State, Disinformation Website https://www.state.gov/disarming-disinformation/ U.S. Department of Defense, Support for Ukraine https://www.defense.gov/Spotlights/Support-for-Ukraine/ Alliance For Securing Democracy War in Ukraine Dis-Information Dashboard https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/war-in-ukraine/ National Democratic Institute Disinformation Coordination Hub https://t.co/OctUrivBQC International Fact-Checking Network, #Ukraine Facts https://ukrainefacts.org/ Monetary Donations