Russian Invasion of Ukraine Situation Report #70

Military and Diplomatic Highlights: · The Ukrainian military is reporting the following Russian losses: o 193,210 Soldiers (Wounded or Killed) o 3,710 Tanks o 7,224 Armored vehicles o 2,978 Artillery o 308 Aircraft o 294 Helicopters o 2,540 Drones · On May 4th, the Russian military launched a drone attack. A total of 18 of 24 drones were shot down. Some drones had handwritten notes on them (For Moscow). · On May 3rd, the U.S. Department of Defense announced additional security assistance. The capabilities in this package include: o Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems o 155mm Howitzers and artillery rounds o 120mm, 81mm, and 60mm mortar rounds o Wire-Guided missiles o AT-4 and Carl Gustaf anti-armor weapon systems o Hydra-70 aircraft rockets o Small arms and small arms ammunition o Demolition munitions o Trucks and trailers to transport heavy equipment. o Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair. o Spare parts and other field equipment · On May 3rd, the European Commission adopted the Act in Support of Ammunition Production to urgently deliver ammunition and missiles to Ukraine and to help Member States refill their stocks. · The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense is reporting the following: o Rail Accidents in Russia: ü A recent uptick in Russian rail accidents in areas bordering Ukraine, attributed to sabotage committed by unknown actors, has almost certainly caused short-term localized disruption to Russian military rail movements. ü Although its Railway Troop Brigades are capable of restoring lines quickly, these incidents will increase pressure on Russia’s internal security forces, who will highly likely remain unable to fully protect Russia’s vast and vulnerable rail networks from attack. o Attacks on Russian Fuel Depots: ü On May 3rd, a fire broke out at a Russian fuel depot in Volna on the Russian mainland side of the Kerch Strait. It was initiated by a suspected drone strike. ü This follows a pattern of Russian fuel storage sites being damaged since the start of the year, with fuel depots in occupied Ukraine and the Russia-Ukraine border regions remaining particularly vulnerable to attack. ü The disruption to the fuel storage and distribution network will likely force adjustments to Russia’s military refueling operations to mitigate targeting. ü Russian adjustments could include deploying additional protection measures at fuel storage sites, as seen in Tuaspe in Russia, or relying on infrastructure in less threatened regions. o Construction of Russian defensive positions: ü Since summer 2022, Russia has constructed some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades. These defenses are not just near the current front lines but have also been dug deep inside areas Russia currently controls. ü Imagery shows that Russia has made a particular effort to fortify the northern border of occupied Crimea, including with a multi-layered defensive zone near the village of Medvedevka. ü Russia has also dug hundreds of miles of trenches well inside internationally recognized Russian territory including in the Belgorod and Kursk regions. ü The defenses highlight Russian leaders’ deep concern that Ukraine could achieve a breakthrough. ü However, some works have likely been ordered by local commanders and civil leaders in attempts to promote the official narrative that Russia is ‘threatened’ by Ukraine and NATO. o Discipline among Russian forces: ü In recent months, Russian commanders have likely started punishing breaches in discipline by detaining the offending troops in ‘Zindans’ which are improvised cells consisting of holes in the ground covered with a metal grille. ü Multiple recent reports from Russian personnel give similar accounts of being placed in Zindans for misdemeanors including drunkenness and attempting to terminate their contracts. ü In the early months of the war, many Russian commanders took a relatively light touch in enforcing discipline, allowing those who refused to fight to quietly return home. ü Since Autumn 2022, there have been multiple increasingly draconian initiatives to improve discipline in the force, especially since Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov assumed command of the operation in January 2023. War and Atrocity Crimes Investigations Highlights: · As of May 1st, the UN High Commissioner of Human Rights recorded 23,375 civilian casualties (8,709 killed and 14,666 injured) in the country. · The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine recorded 1,371 new war crimes as of May 5th. · The Ukrainian military reported that Russian forces are shelling unoccupied areas of Bakhmut with incendiary ammunition. · On May 3rd, Russian forces using various weapons systems attacks Kherson and targeted a train station and crossing, hardware store, a supermarket, and a gas station. A total of 21 people were killed and 48 injured. Humanitarian Impact and Response and Recovery Highlights: · A grave humanitarian crisis is rapidly unfolding in the area surrounding Marinka, Donetska oblast, where approximately 5,000 civilians are enduring heavy ground fighting and hostilities that have dramatically escalated over the past two months: o This has also affected the humanitarian situation in the neighboring Kurakhove and Vuhledar communities which is home to another 24,000 civilians. This impact includes ongoing hostilities and the movement of displaced persons. o There is also an urgent need for increased support with shelter kits and other critical household items, as many civilians are living in damaged homes. · On May 3rd, a UN convoy brought vital supplies to the 2,000 civilians in Dvorichna and neighboring villages. These supplies included: o Food and water o Solar lamps o Shelter and hygiene kits o Clothing for children · Healthcare and Public Health Update: o 19 Ukrainians were evacuated for specialized treatments at clinics in Croatia. This was the first instance of cooperation on medical evacuation to the country. o Another 38 Ukrainians were transported to Poland thanks to support from the Canadian Foundation. o The European Union provided an update (May 3rd) on medical evacuations: ü A total of 2,158 missions have been completed. ü 40 missions are in progress. ü 25 missions are pending approval. ü A total of 253 missions have been cancelled. · The Ukrainian State Emergency Services received 21 fire rescue vehicles and 60 pallets of humanitarian aid from the United Kingdom. · Black Sea Grain Initiative (May 3rd): o There have been 933 outbound voyages that transported 30 million tons of commodities. o A total of 3.4 million tons of wheat have been shipped to lower-income countries. · The Emergency Telecommunications Cluster (ETC) has provided the following update: o The ETC has finalized the service agreement with the Ukraine Broadcast and Radio Telecommunications Concern to expand the VHF radio network in Kyiv, Dnipro, Lviv, Kharkiv, and Luch. o The Cluster has started working on a Remote Site on Vehicle project. This is a pilot mobile VHF radio solution for UN armored vehicles on mission in high-risk areas. Russian Dis-information Campaign Highlights: · The Russian Children’s Commissioner who is currently wanted for war crimes is spreading disinformation that Russia is saving Ukrainian children. · Robert F. Kennedy has falsely claimed that Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense systems have been deployed to Ukraine. · Russian disinformation is still falsely claiming that Russian forces only target military targets. Cultural Heritage Protection Highlights: · The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) as of May 2nd, has verified damage to 254 cultural heritage sites. This includes: o 109 Religious sites o 22 Museums o 91 Buildings of historical and/or artistic interest o 19 Monuments o 12 Libraries o 1 Archive Sources: · Ukraine ETC Situation Report #22 (Reporting period: 01/04/2023 to 30/04/2023) · War in Ukraine: Situation report from WHO Ukraine country office. Issue No. 51, 5 May 2023 · Ukraine: Deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Donetska oblast - Flash Update #3: Marinka, Vuhledar and Kurakhove (3 May 2023) · Russia’s war on Ukraine | MEDEVAC operations - DG ECHO Daily Map | 03/05/2023 · Ukraine: Civilian casualties as of 24:00, 1 May 2023 · Ukraine Data Explorer · Damaged cultural sites in Ukraine verified by UNESCO · UNESCO Kyiv Twitter Page · OCHA Ukraine Twitter Page · Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Twitter Page · Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine Twitter Page · Ukrainian State Emergency Services Twitter Page · Ukrainian Red Cross Twitter Page · President of the EU Commission Twitter Page · ECHO Twitter Page · United Kingdom Ministry of Defense Twitter Page · U.S. Department of Defense Twitter Page · PolyGraph Info Twitter Page · EU East Stratcom Task Force Disinformation Review Twitter Page Resources Nearly 2 million Ukrainians provided with crucial cash assistance (New) https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/04/1135832 Meet the Ukrainian firefighter battling flame and fear (New) https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/news-stories/stories/meet-ukrainian-firefighter-battling-flame-and-fear_en Director-General condemns killing of journalist and fixer Bogdan Bitik in Ukraine (New) https://www.unesco.org/en/articles/director-general-condemns-killing-journalist-and-fixer-bogdan-bitik-ukraine UN Refugee Agency, Ukrainian Refugee Operational Data Portal http://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine Centre for Humanitarian Data, Ukraine Data Explorer https://data.humdata.org/visualization/ukraine-humanitarian-operations/ Humanitarian Logistics Association, Ukraine Crisis Information Website https://www.humanitarianlogistics.org/donate ACAPS Ukraine Analysis Hub https://ukraine-analysis-hub.acaps.org/ UKRAINE- HEALTH CLUSTER ACTIVITIES Dashboard https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/ukraine/ukraine-health-cluster-activities U.S. Department of State, Disinformation Website https://www.state.gov/disarming-disinformation/ U.S. Department of Defense, Support for Ukraine https://www.defense.gov/Spotlights/Support-for-Ukraine/ Alliance For Securing Democracy War in Ukraine Dis-Information Dashboard https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/war-in-ukraine/ National Democratic Institute Disinformation Coordination Hub https://t.co/OctUrivBQC International Fact-Checking Network, #Ukraine Facts https://ukrainefacts.org/ Monetary Donations