Emergency Manager's Weekly Report
- Mar 19, 2023
- 6 min read

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Situation Report #64

Military and Diplomatic Highlights: · This conflict currently has an active frontline that is 1,500 kilometers and is one of the longest conflicts in European history. · The Ukrainian military is reported the following Russian losses: o 164,910 Soldiers (Wounded or Killed) o 3,532 Tanks o 6.853 Armored vehicles o 2,568 Artillery o 305 Aircraft o 290 Helicopters o 2,159 Drones o 18 Ships · The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense is reporting the following: o Changes in Russian Military Conscription: ü On March 13th, Russian Duma deputies introduced a bill to change the age bracket for conscription to men aged 21-30 years, from the current 18-27. The law is likely to be passed and would come into force in January 2024. ü Russia has continued to run conscription call-up cycles twice a year since Soviet times. They are distinct from the exceptional ‘partial mobilization’ of veterans carried out since September 2022. ü Russia continues to officially bar conscripts from operations in Ukraine, though at least hundreds have probably served through administrative mix ups or after being coerced to sign contracts. ü Many 18-21 years old, men currently claim exemption from the draft due to being in higher education. The authorities are highly likely changing the age bracket to bolster troop numbers by ensuring that students are eventually forced to serve. ü Even if Russia continues to refrain from deploying conscripts in the war, extra conscripts will free up a greater proportion of professional soldiers to fight. o Bakhmut Offensive: ü In recent days, Russian and Wagner Group forces have obtained footholds west of the Bakhmutka River in the center of the contested Donbas town of Bakhmut. ü Over the preceding week, the river had marked the front line. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to defend the west of the town. However, more broadly across the front line, Russia is conducting some of the lowest rates of local offensive action that has been seen since at least January 2023. ü This is most likely because Russian forces have temporarily depleted the deployed formations’ combat power to such an extent that even local offensive actions are not currently sustainable. ü Russian leaders will likely seek to regenerate the offensive potential of the force once personnel and munition stocks are replenished. In the meantime, commanders will likely be forced to choose between carrying out offensive operations and conducting a credible defense of the full line. · The U.S. Department of Defense reported that on March 14th, a Russian Su-27 aircraft struck a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicle's propeller. The drone was brought down in international waters: o Before the collision, the Russian aircraft dumped fuel on, and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound, and unprofessional manner. o The drone at the time of the incident was conducting routine operations in international airspace. · International Military Aid: o The Slovakian government is donating 13 MiG-29 jets. o The Canadian government is providing the following resources: ü 8,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition ü 12 air defense missiles ü 1,800 rounds of 105mm tank training ammunition ü Additional Leopard 2 Tanks o Lithuania is providing 155mm ammunition, assorted vehicles, and military rations. War and Atrocity Crimes Investigations Highlights: · As of March 13th, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights recorded 21,965 civilian casualties (8,231 killed and 13,734 injured) in the country. · The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is establishing an International Law Unit. This unit will contribute to the investigation of Russian war crimes, implement international humanitarian law norms, EU regulations and North Atlantic Treaty Organization standards. · On March 17th, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants against Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova: o Mr. Vladimir Putin is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation. o Ms. Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova is the Russian Federation’s Commissioner for Children’s Rights is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation. o As of March 13th, the Conflict Observatory reports that Russia has systematically relocated at least 6,000 children from Ukraine to a network of re-education and adoption facilities. · On March 16th, the UN Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine issued a report detailing that Russian authorities have committed a wide range of violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law in various regions of Ukraine, many of which amount to war crimes: o The war crimes include attacks on civilians and energy-related infrastructure, willful killings, unlawful confinement, torture, rape, and other sexual violence, as well as unlawful transfers and deportations of children. · On March 15th, the United States introduced new sanctions on several Russian officials and individuals for the forced relocation, re-education, and adoption of Ukraine’s children. Humanitarian Impact and Response and Recovery Highlights: · The United Nations and the Ukrainian Red Cross has continued providing relief supplies to impacted areas: o On March 17th, a UN convoy delivered food, medical kits, solar lamps, hygiene kits and other essential supplies to assist nearly 6,000 residents in the front-line Beryslav community (Kherson region). o On March 16th, a UN convoy brought food, clothes, hygiene supplies, solar lamps, and repair materials to some 2,700 people remaining near Kupiansk (Kharkiv region). Due to ongoing hostilities, this community doesn't have water, electricity or access to medical services. o On March 15th, the Ukrainian Red Cross delivered humanitarian supplies to the 200 people living in Energodar. o On March 14th, a UN inter-agency convoy reached the front-line town of Siversk (Donetsk region), with vital supplies (food, solar lamps, blankets, hygiene kits and medical supplies) to assist the 1,500 people who remain there. · Healthcare and Public Health Update: o As of March 16th, the World Health Organization (WHO) has verified 859 attacks on health care in Ukraine. These attacks caused 101 deaths and 136 injuries. o The Ukrainian Red Cross as of March 16th, has conducted 9,700 medical consultations by their mobile medical teams in Cherkasy Oblast. o In Zaporizhzhia, UN Migration Agency mobile health teams continue to provide free medical consultations and visiting people living close to the front line. · On March 16th, the UN Migration Agency delivered nine high-capacity generators to critical infrastructure facilities in Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions. These regions are currently hosting one of the largest numbers of displaced people in Ukraine. · Black Sea Grain Initiative Update: o As of March 17th, there have been 826 outbound voyages carrying 25 million tons of commodities. o 41.6% of the wheat commodities have been shipped to lower-income countries. o As of March 18th, this initiative has been extended. Russian Dis-information Campaign Highlights: · After the ICC issued arrests warrants for President Putin and Ms. Lvova-Belova, the Russian foreign minister deflected with Donbas falsehoods. Details are available here. · The U.S. State Department’s Global Engagement Center has released a report exposing a coordinated Kremlin disinformation campaign pushing false narratives about biological weapons. · After a Ukrainian prisoner of war was executed on camera, Russia has tried to confuse the world with a myriad of contradictory lies to blur who is responsible. Cultural Heritage Protection Highlights: · The UN Educational, Scientific and Educational Organization (UNESCO) as of March 17th, has verified damage to 247 sites, this includes: o 107 Religious sites o 20 Museums o 89 Buildings of historical and/or artistic interest o 19 Monuments o 12 Libraries Sources: · Note to Correspondents - on the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative · Ukraine: Civilian casualties as of 24:00, 12 March 2023 · Ukraine Data Explorer · Damaged cultural sites in Ukraine verified by UNESCO · OCHA Ukraine Twitter Page · Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Twitter Page · Ukrainian Red Cross Twitter Page · United Kingdom Ministry of Defense Twitter Page · U.S. Department of Defense Twitter Page · PolyGraph Info Twitter Page · EU East Stratcom Task Force for Disinformation Review Twitter Page · International Criminal Court Twitter Page · UN Human Rights Council Twitter Page · Conflict Observatory Twitter Page Resources UN Refugee Agency, Ukrainian Refugee Operational Data Portal http://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine Centre for Humanitarian Data, Ukraine Data Explorer https://data.humdata.org/visualization/ukraine-humanitarian-operations/ Humanitarian Logistics Association, Ukraine Crisis Information Website https://www.humanitarianlogistics.org/donate ACAPS Ukraine Analysis Hub https://ukraine-analysis-hub.acaps.org/ UKRAINE- HEALTH CLUSTER ACTIVITIES Dashboard https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/ukraine/ukraine-health-cluster-activities U.S. Department of State, Disinformation Website https://www.state.gov/disarming-disinformation/ U.S. Department of Defense, Support for Ukraine https://www.defense.gov/Spotlights/Support-for-Ukraine/ Alliance For Securing Democracy War in Ukraine Dis-Information Dashboard https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/war-in-ukraine/ National Democratic Institute Disinformation Coordination Hub https://t.co/OctUrivBQC International Fact-Checking Network, #Ukraine Facts https://ukrainefacts.org/ Monetary Donations