Russian Invasion of Ukraine Situation Report #91

The Ukrainian military is reported the following Russian losses as of October 28th:

o 298,420 Soldiers (Wounded or Killed) o 5,167 Tanks o 9,749 Armored vehicles o 7,180 Artillery o 320 Aircraft o 324 Helicopters o 1,541 Cruise missiles o 5,339 Drones

International Assistance:

o Germany is providing an additional IRIS-T air defense system with missiles and four drones. o Denmark is providing a military package that includes tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery ammunition, drones, and small arms that is worth $520 million. o Australia is providing de-mining equipment, portable x-ray machines, a 3D metal printer, and counter drone systems which is worth $20 million. o On October 26th, the U.S. Department of Defense is providing the following capabilities that is worth $150 million: ü Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems ü AIM-9M missiles for air defense ü Stinger anti-aircraft missiles ü Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems ü 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds ü Tube-Launched, Optically Tracked Wire-Guided missiles. ü Javelin anti-armor systems ü More than 2 million rounds of small arms ammunition ü Night vision devices ü Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing. ü Cold weather gear ü Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense is reporting the following:

o Use of Russian Long-Range Aviation Fleet: ü The Russian Airforce’s Long Range Aviation fleet (LRA) of heavy bombers has not conducted air launched cruise missile strikes into Ukraine for over a month, one of the longest gaps in such strikes since the conflict began. ü While Russia is still able to utilize other strike capabilities, the LRA had been the primary method for conducting stand-off precision strikes. ü Russia almost certainly needed to reduce the frequency of its strikes to replenish its diminishing stockpile of AS-23a KODIAK cruise missiles. ü Russia will likely use any recently produced inventory LRA munitions to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure over the winter. Russia will highly likely continue to supplement any such campaign with Iranian-designed one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicle attacks. o Use of North Korean Munitions by Russia: ü Despite Russia’s official rejection of recent reports, it is almost certain that North Korean munitions have now reached ammunition depots in western Russia. These depots support Russian military operations in Ukraine. ü If North Korea sustains the recent scale and pace of military-related shipments (more than 1,000 containers over the last several weeks), it will be on course to become one of Russia’s most significant foreign arms suppliers, alongside Iran and Belarus. ü It is currently unclear what Russia has agreed to provide North Korea in return. It is unlikely the full package has been finalized; it was highly likely one of the primary discussion topics during recent senior level Russian visits to North Korea. ü It will likely include a mixture of financial compensation, other economic support, the provision of military technology, and cooperation on other high technology areas, such as space. o Fighting around the Dnipro River: ü Over the last week fighting has intensified around the banks of the lower reaches of the Dnipro River. Ukraine has given higher priority to operations in this sector, building up small bridgeheads on the east bank it has controlled since the summer. ü Russia has likely been alert to the possibly of attacks across the river since it withdrew its forces from the western bank 12 months ago. ü The area is under the control of the newly established 18th Combined Arms Army, after some of the units previously in the area were diverted to the Orikhiv axis to the east. ü As in most sectors, a decisive factor is almost certainly the combatants’ ability to bring accurate, intense artillery fire to bear. Initial indication suggests that Russia has maintained a significant artillery capability within range of the river.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has assessed the damage caused by this week’s powerful explosions near Ukraine’s Khmelnitsky Nuclear Power Plant:

o A total of 26 broken windows were reported but it has not impacted on nuclear safety and security at the site. o The explosion did briefly cut external power to two off-site radiation monitoring stations. Ukraine reported that they shot down two drones that were five and 20 kilometers from the plant. o The plant is now installing thin metal sheets to replace the damaged windows until permanent replacements can be procured. War and Atrocity Crimes Investigations Highlights:

The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reported that between October 20-27 a total of 558 new war crimes were registered.
There have been two recent incidents of Russian forces targeting Ukrainian first responders:

o In the Kharkiv region on Oct 27th, a Russian rocket attack targeted a fire station in the city of Izyum. A total of eight first responders were injured, and 13 pieces of equipment and the station were damaged. o On October 25th, Russian shelling damaged two fire and rescue units. Humanitarian Impact and Response and Recovery Highlights: · Fighting continues to take a heavy toll on civilians in areas close to the front line, while attacks on power infrastructure raised further concerns of another energy crisis during the winter months. · Hostilities have further intensified in Donetska, Khersonska and Zaporizka oblasts, and the authorities announced mandatory evacuation of some front-line communities. · With pockets of new displacement, attacks on populated areas have caused further destruction of homes, schools, and hospitals along the entire front line. · On October 26th the Netherlands Firefighters Foundation donated a fire tanker to the Kharkiv Garrison of the State Emergency Service. · There are now 5.8 million refugees located throughout Europe and there are 3.6 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in the country: o A total of 4.5 million people has returned to the country. · The UN is targeting 11.1 million people to receive assistance and nine million people have been reached. · As of October 12th, $2 Billion of funding has been received and $3.95 Billion is needed. The 10 top donors are: o United States of America o European Union o Japan o France o Norway o Germany o Save the Children o Private Funders o Canada o Netherlands · The UN urgently needs $435 million to support 1.7 million over the winter months. · More than 500 humanitarian organizations are implementing activities under the 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan in Ukraine: o 324 are national non-governmental organizations. · On October 28th, a UN interagency convoy reached the front-line community of Huliaipole in the Zaporizhzhia Region. This convoy delivered relief supplies for 2,000 people. This area has suffered large-scale destruction, and the residents remain without power, water, and gas supply. · Healthcare and Public Health Update: o The United Nations Children’s Fund delivered to Ukraine’s Health Ministry 156,960 doses of inactivated polio vaccine, 50,000 doses of Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine and 32,000 doses of diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis vaccine. o The Ukrainian and Estonia Red Cross have supported the installation of solar panels on the Vyshneve City Hospital in Kyiv Oblast. This hospital serves 120,000 people. · The UN Development Programme (UNDP) with support and funding from Japan delivered two autotransformers: o Each autotransformer is 142 tons each and were transported by ship to the Polish port of Gdansk and then were loaded onto flatbed cargo trucks. Cultural Heritage Protection Highlights: The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) as of October 18th has verified damage to 295 sites, this includes:

124 Religious sites
110 Buildings of historical and/or artistic interest
28 Museums
19 Monuments
13 Libraries
1 Archive

Sources:

ReliefWeb, Ukraine Humanitarian Situation Key Figures
Ukraine: Humanitarian Response and Funding Snapshot (January - September 2023)
UNICEF delivers almost 240,000 doses of life-saving vaccines for children in Ukraine

· Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Twitter Page · Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine Twitter Page · Ukrainian State Emergency Services Twitter Page